New Mexico State — 2026 schedule & results record 3-4 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating -14.6 · SOS -8.9 · Mean wins 4.7 · Picked 2-10 · Vegas 4.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 08/29 | Florida State | away | L 17–34 | +30.75 ✓ | -26.1 | 6% | L ✓ |
Florida State -31 · LOSS -50 |
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Mercyhurst | home | W 51–14 | -29 ✓ | +16.5 | 83% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Hawai'i | away | L 19–29 | +7.5 ✗ | -14.9 | 19% | L ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | New Mexico | home | L 18–42 | +11.5 ✗ | -5.8 | 36% | L ✓ | |
| 5 | Thu 10/01 | Western Kentucky | home | W 34–13 | -1.5 ✓ | -10.7 | 27% | L ✗ |
New Mexico State -2.5 · WIN +19 Western Kentucky +2.5 · LOSS -50 |
| 6 | Wed 10/07 | Florida International | away | L 3–22 | +7 ✗ | -9.5 | 29% | L ✓ |
New Mexico State +6.5 · LOSS -20 |
| 8 | Wed 10/21 | Sam Houston | away | W 30–24 | -3 ✓ | +1.3 | 53% | W ✓ |
New Mexico State -3 · WIN +20 |
| 9 | Wed 10/28 | Jacksonville State | home | — | +3.25 | -3.3 | 42% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Liberty | home | — | — | -3.4 | 42% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Missouri State | away | — | — | -4.6 | 40% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Delaware | home | — | — | -1.5 | 46% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Middle Tennessee | away | — | — | -3.6 | 42% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.